Bullish Outlook: Why Trefis Predicts Qualcomm Stock Could Surge to $340
As of May 4, 2026, analysts at Trefis have released a compelling “doubling” case for Qualcomm (QCOM), suggesting the stock has a credible path to reaching $340 per share. While the broader semiconductor market has been hyper-focused on data center AI, Trefis argues that Qualcomm is the sleeper hit for the next phase: Edge AI.
Despite visible headwinds, the fundamental shift beneath the surface suggests that the market may be significantly underestimating the company’s long-term earnings power.
The Bear Case: Visible but Priced In
The market has been cautious due to two well-known factors:
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The Apple Transition: Apple is moving toward its own custom modems, putting approximately $7 billion to $7.8 billion of Qualcomm’s annual revenue at risk by 2027.
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Memory Squeeze: High demand for AI memory in data centers has tightened the supply for mobile DRAM, raising component costs and slowing the smartphone upgrade cycle.
Trefis argues these risks are already reflected in Qualcomm’s relatively low valuation (trading at roughly 17x forward earnings compared to the semiconductor sector average of 35x).
The Path to $340: “How the Stock Doubles”
The Trefis model for a $340 price target is built on a transition from a handset supplier to a universal “intelligent edge” platform:
| Metric | FY’25 Actuals | FY’29 Projection |
| Revenue | $44 Billion | $65 Billion |
| Net Income | ~$11 Billion | $16 Billion |
| Estimated EPS | ~$10.00 | $17.00 |
| Target Multiple | 17x (Current) | 20x (Projected) |
| Target Price | ~$170 | $340 |
Key Growth Engines
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Automotive Dominance: Qualcomm has secured a $45 billion design-win pipeline in the automotive sector. As vehicles become “software-defined,” Qualcomm’s Snapdragon Digital Chassis is becoming the industry standard.
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On-Device (Edge) AI: Unlike ChatGPT, which runs in the cloud, the next generation of AI will run locally on smartphones, PCs, and IoT devices to ensure privacy and speed. Qualcomm’s power-efficient NPU (Neural Processing Unit) is uniquely positioned for this shift.
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Industrial Robotics: Acquisitions like Arduino and the launch of the Dragonwing platform extend Qualcomm’s reach into industrial automation and robotics.
Financial Strength & Shareholder Yield
Despite the “softer” smartphone cycle, Qualcomm remains a “cash machine”:
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Operating Cash Flow: Maintains a strong 32% margin.
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Shareholder Returns: In early 2026, the company authorized a massive $20 billion stock repurchase program and raised its quarterly dividend to $0.92 per share.
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Recent Performance: Following a Q2 earnings beat on April 29, 2026, the stock surged 17% in after-hours trading, signaling that investor confidence is beginning to pivot toward these emerging stories.